Who is with whom against whom?
A wave of panic erupted in the media over the report of US Congressman Eliot Engel that Azerbaijan provided Israel with its bases to strike at Iran. This message is supported by a whole series of facts. While world is watching Taiwan and Sotuh China Sea, Central Asia is quietly preparing for a possible war involving number of countries.
This is to present the situation in Central Asia from a military-technical point of view. Not a political one.
However, one cannot do without a minimum of political information on the topic.
On October 1, the exercises of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) began on the western bank of the Araks River, which flows practically along the border of Iran and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic (NAR), an exclave of the Republic of Azerbaijan (RA). The exercises are distinguished by a concentration of troops and weapons previously unseen for Iran. As well as an unusual location. In response, the Republic of Turkey (TR) began joint exercises with Azerbaijan and Pakistan on October 5. Turkish troops were delivered to the exercise area through the only short (9 km) section of the Turkish-Azerbaijani border in the NAR, the Dilak border crossing. The Azerbaijanis had to fly through Georgia to Turkey, then march through the same passage, but most of them were from the local contingent.
Is Azerbaijan really surprised?
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in an interview with the Turkish state agency Anadolu that he was stunned by the development of events in Iran. “ Each country can conduct any military exercises on its territory. This is her sovereign right. But why now and why on our border? »A big, respected person is playing an innocent sheep. But he knows very well that it was his armed forces that created a pretext for exacerbating relations. We are talking about blocking the road between the Armenian cities of Goris and Kapan by Azerbaijanis, arresting two Iranian drivers and levying a duty and tax (about $ 100) for the trip. But this is a pretext. The reasons for the exacerbation, of course, are deeper.
Let’s not plunge into the jungle of geopolitics and the history of the Middle East. Just note that the decades-long US and Israeli struggle against Iran’s nuclear program is unsuccessful. Numerous sanctions, sabotage against nuclear enterprises and even the killing of specialists did not help to solve the problem.
Leaked information or rumors?
On May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the JCPOA (the so-called nuclear deal on Iran). In response, on the same day, Iran announced a phased withdrawal from the restrictions. There is an opinion that Iran has never stopped working on the creation of nuclear weapons. For example, the government of Israel on April 1 of the same year announced the continuation of the secret project “Amad” (started in 2000) to develop nuclear warheads for missiles. International attention has focused on Iran’s production of enriched uranium, while nuclear weapons include a range of specific materials. The JCPOA did not imply control over their production. In a word, the fears of the United States and Israel that Iran is close to production or has already produced nuclear warheads are quite justified.
According to leaked information (more rumors), after the failure of the Vienna talks, Iran is going to declare that it has nuclear weapons. In light of the impending aggression against them, the Ayatollah regime apparently hopes that this will have a powerful stopping effect on its main enemy, Israel.
I suppose that it was precisely this readiness of Iran’s nuclear weapons that became the main reason for the rush. And what we are now seeing is only the beginning of a large chain of events. The end of such a chain could be a full-scale global nuclear war. “
Interests of many countries involved
In the current geopolitical pyramid, with the foundations of Iran-Israel-Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Armenia, the top is undoubtedly the United States. Although the pyramid should be drawn with this very top down. All those indicated in the base are more or less close. The Americans are on the other side of the globe.
At least 6 regional states and the United States can take the most direct part in the conflict.
USA, population 333 million.
Not a single serious mess in the last 70 years is complete without them. Against the background of a series of failures here and there and the permanently threatening default, the Americans need some kind of uplifting event. Best of all is the “shiny little war”. And it is desirable so that they do not fly by themselves. I don’t think I need to waste your time to describe their interest in this matter.
While keeping in the shadows, manipulating, directing, throwing intelligence and a little something. They can provide Azerbaijan with their Patriots, recently withdrawn from Saudi Arabia. Also Tel Aviv with the THAAD complex. They will not intervene immediately, but when the main hostilities subside in order to appropriate all the achievements. Americans can take part in air strikes with cruise missiles from their air bases in the Middle East and Turkey. And in naval operations. However, they may be the first to strike the main blow using nuclear weapons. Trident missiles from submarines. Other weapons are deeply buried – up to 500m, nuclear and missile objects cannot be hit in rocky soils. The United States has experience in bombing its bases with Iranian tactical ballistic missiles.
Iran has reported 80 deaths of American servicemen. The United States did not recognize the irrecoverable loss of personnel, only one destroyed plane, but on January 28, pressed by media footage about the evacuation of the wounded, they confirmed that 50 servicemen had received head injuries, on January 31 they agreed to 64, and on February 10 they announced that such injuries already diagnosed in 109 servicemen. Did it take a month for this diagnosis?
Iran, population 87 million. Azerbaijan, population 10 million.
Historically, Iran and Azerbaijan for centuries have been part of the same state. It was called by different names, with unstable borders. After a series of Russian-Persian wars, the Azerbaijani people were divided. Today, about 30 million Azerbaijanis live in Iran. This greatly strains the Iranian authorities. They fear an explosion of separatism. In this regard, the strengthening of Turkey’s influence in the Caucasus seems to them a real big threat. At the same time, there are many ethnic Iranians in Azerbaijan: Talysh, Tats, Kurds, Mountain Jews. Azerbaijanis have deep historical and cultural ties with Iran and even common ethnic and social traits. The population of the countries mainly professes Shiite Islam. That directly influenced the formation of similar morals and customs.
Talish- Iranian-speaking people living in the south of Azerbaijan. According to unofficial data, their number in this country reaches almost 2 million. Many of them are residents of Baku and Sumgait. They demand independence, though not very energetically.
Rulers on both sides swear love for their neighbors. So in the event of a war between them, there will be no occupation or seizure of Azerbaijan, but the “reunification” of fraternal peoples. There is an exchange of goods between the countries, but not much. Azerbaijan competes with Iran in oil and gas supplies to and through Turkey.
Armenia, 3 million people
Armenia, it seems, has chosen the role of a victim for itself and is not going to defend itself. Pashinyan is preparing, however, for a visit to Moscow. Both the head of parliament and the minister of foreign affairs came recently. Probably ask the Russians for weapons and protection.
The capture of Armenia is very desirable for Turkey. Entirely or in the form of a wide corridor to Azerbaijan.
Armenia is part of the CSTO. So when attacked Russia will be forced to intervene in full. So much for the 13th Russian-Turkish war. The 102nd base of the RF Armed Forces and the peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh are located in Armenia.
Turkey, population 87 million.
Turkey and Iran are sworn friends, they quarrel, then they reconcile. Both countries are fighting Kurdish separatists and hate Saudi Arabia. Turkey buys Iranian oil and gas. Iran buys Turkish goods with the proceeds, it turns out almost barter. But in Syria, they have fundamental contradictions. Turkey considers Syria the territory of the Ottoman Empire and opposes Assad. Iran needs Syria as a springboard for actions against Israel and Assad is a natural ally for them.
Recently, Turkey has taken some steps towards rapprochement with Israel and Saudi Arabia. This cannot but anger Iran. But what really strains the Ayatollahs is Turkish pan-Turkism, which is the basis of their policy towards the Caucasus and Central Asia.
In general, Turkey does not need Azerbaijan as a springboard for strikes on Iran. They have a common border, there are Turkish air bases near it. For example, Diyarbakir, 500 kilometers away. There are hard-surface airfields even closer. But it cannot let Israel into its bases. Not by concept.
And the sharply complicated relations with Israel after May 10, 2021 are not conducive to an alliance. In Azerbaijan, they will have to interact with each other in one way or another. God forbid that it does not work out.
Israel, population 9.2 million.
Relations between Iran and Israel are the simplest and most understandable. Absolute mutual hatred. An unconcealed desire to destroy each other. Between them lie Iraq and Syria, distances from 1300 km in a straight line, and above the enemy for Hel ha Avir – the Israeli Air Force, territory. It is extremely difficult for aviation to operate at such distances. That gave rise to talk that Azerbaijan is needed as a springboard for Israel.
However, Tel Aviv could have asked the United States to push through Iraq for the purpose of setting up “jump airfields” there. For example, at the Ain al-Assad airbase destroyed by the Iranian TBR. But with the organization of some kind of air defense. Otherwise, it will be like January 8, 2020. It is armed with medium-range ballistic missiles, supplied the LORA TBR (range 500 km, approx. 50 units) to Azerbaijan. Officially it does not have nuclear weapons, but everyone knows that they are.
“Israel has no nuclear weapons, but if necessary, we will use them” (C) Golda Meir (credited).
We will have to interact with Iran, despite many acute contradictions, especially on the Palestinian issue.
Pakistan. Population 228 million people
Relations with Iran have been good for a long time. Tensions between the countries arose after the US flight from Afghanistan. There was active trade between the countries. Pakistan has actively supported the Taliban government. It is an ally of Turkey and Azerbaijan in pursuing a pan-Turkist policy in Central Asia. Iran is totally unhappy with this. Pakistan also has nuclear weapons. Pakistan stated that if Iran starts a war with Azerbaijan, then Pakistani troops “will enter Iran through Tehran and leave through Tabriz.”
Does Iran have allies?
Two allies who will even take part in the hostilities – Syria and Armenia – are very weak and will not be able to seriously affect the balance of forces. Syrian airspace will not be friendly. Israel will have to take this into account.
Iranian tactical missile systems Fateh-110, Fateh-313, Hormuz with ranges of 200-250 km and drones may be in Syria with a high probability. It is not for nothing that Israel is bombing Damascus airport so thoroughly. As soon as the plane lands from Iran, F-16I Sufa with GBU-39 bombs take off in 10 minutes.
Iranian electronic warfare systems and special forces DRGs can also operate from Syria and Armenia. Iranian special forces are worthy of a separate topic. There are whole divisions and brigades in the Army and the IRGC.
Armenia separates Turkey and Azerbaijan. It can become an insurmountable border for the Turks and Israelis. Taking into account Russian ability to block the delivery of military contingents, the transfer of aviation, and any military cargo to Azerbaijan through Georgia both by sea with transshipment and by air over the Black Sea, this line could, in principle, completely disrupt the ground operation. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities, Russia, of course, will formally make a request to Georgia to open a transport corridor to Armenia. With a probability of 500% it will be refused. This means that Russia will have to use the experience of the “Syrian Express” and deliver everything through Iran.
China and the DPRK
These two states, of course, will not take direct part in hostilities. China needs Iranian oil. Negotiations were under way to supply 150 Chengdu J-10 fighters (analogous to the F-16). However, the Chinese themselves still lack them. With the help of the Chinese, Iran developed the Bavar-373 air defense system, an analogue of the S-300 PMU-2, and Khordad-15, an analogue of the C-350. Both the PRC and the DPRK transferred their missile technologies to it, this is a fact. There are assumptions that they could have transferred nuclear technologies and materials. And even ready-made nuclear weapons, but this is not a fact.