New Poland & Romania interests in Ukraine

Ukraine was not taken to NATO, but Poland and Romania are ready to fight for its territories.

Poland and Romania, together with the Lilliputian Baltic states, are often mentioned as possible “solutions” to the inevitable collapse of the Ukrainian military. However, it is, instead, a hidden agenda behind these speculations. What are Poland and Romania’s real interests in Ukraine?

Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO. Moreover, the bloc refused to give her firm guarantees of further support. These are the sad results of the summit in Vilnius for Kyiv. However, Poland and Romania are ready to enter the war in Ukraine—separately from the bloc, on their own. At least, these are prominent rumours. What would be the Russian response? What would happen if these two members of NATO suffered considerable losses in Ukraine after clashing with Russian forces? Could this lead to a broader war in Europe? Could it be a prelude to WWIII?

Several sections are given to Ukraine in the communique of the NATO summit, which took place in Vilnius on July 11-12. It says that Ukraine will wait a few years after winning the war against Russia. It will take these few years to recover from the post-war devastation and bring democratic institutions into order in line with Western ideas. The document also says nothing about further material and financial support for Kiev; it only lists the funds allocated for 2022-2023. Those believing in miracles might still believe in Ukraine winning the war against Russia. However, even they are not expecting that to happen by the end of this year. Who will finance the war after?

Promises… Promises

Despite the best efforts by the Western and Ukrainian propagandists, the summit was a humiliating defeat for Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States. They did everything possible to get Ukraine to join NATO during that summit. To further humiliate Zelenski, German Chancellor Scholz verbally promised additional 25 Leopard 1-A-5 tanks, produced in 1965 and modernised in 1987. If these tanks can still move, I guess there is an attached condition for that to happen. The announcement about the delivery of F-16 fighter jets by next year was followed by the US State Department stating that only the training of Ukrainian pilots has been solved. Any military expert will tell you that these fighter jets will do nothing to help Ukraine.

However, the question is, should Russia celebrate? The answer is probably negative. Why? No guarantees were given to Ukraine directly from NATO. However, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that Poland and Romania would be security guarantors – regardless of NATO. According to him, these two countries are ready to send “peacekeeping forces” to Ukraine. What could be behind that offer?

There is only one way to interpret this statement by Duda: Poland and Romania are ready to go to war at any moment. At the same time, the NATO bloc will not be considered a participant in the conflict. And the escalation that Washington and Brussels are so afraid of will not happen anyway. Duda told reporters on July 12 that he would convene a Polish security council on the subject when he returned to Vilnius from Warsaw. Are leaders of Poland and Romania prepared to follow the Ukrainian example and provide their soldiers to the Ukrainian meat grinder, or is something hidden?

Ukraine joining NATO “in parts” – as parts of Poland, Romania and Hungary

On the eve of the summit, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former secretary general of the organization, said that Ukraine could be accepted into NATO not entirely but in parts. According to him, those territories of the country where peace has been established can enter the bloc one at a time. This idea was initially considered absurd, but after Duda’s speech, everything fell into place. Indeed: if Polish “peacekeepers” establish peace in the Lviv region, why not accept it? Even though there are no military operations in the Lviv region. Unless you count forcible mobilisation as a military operation.

The ex-secretary general opened the cards and signed that Ukraine would have to divide the territories. At the same time, Galicia should go to Poland, Bukovina (the part that is part of the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine) – to Romania, and Transcarpathia – to Hungary.

Zelensky himself indirectly confirmed it at his final press conference in Vilnius.

“We are not offended that Ukraine was not admitted to NATO in the format it is today. We are normal people and understand everything and we will be grateful to Poland and Romania”

Some rumours even speculate that the Odesa region might be given to Türkiye in return for accepting Sweden’s membership. However, I would not go along with this one.

Is this a possible offramp for disastrous Biden policies in Ukraine?

“The accession of some regions of Ukraine to other NATO countries will not be considered by Washington as a geopolitical defeat, provided that the war with Russia continues,”

Leonid Ivashov – Russian political and military analist

According to him (Ivashov), the United States will even be pleased if they are released from financing the war with Russia, and the interested countries of Europe will take it upon themselves. The main thing is that military operations near the borders of Russia should not stop for as long as possible.

There is one unknown with this “solution”. It is the question of what Russia would think about that. Most importantly, what Russia could and would do about that?

I don’t think Russia would oppose this outcome under particular conditions. It was never part of the Russian plan to occupy Ukraine in full. Russians know well that the population in western parts of Ukraine would be vehemently opposed to that outcome. However, Russia will agree with that outcome if there is a new Ukraine between them and NATO-occupied parts of Ukraine. Russia will also insist that the new Ukraine must be demilitarised and neutral.

It is quite possible that additional Russian troops and some Wagner forces have been located in western parts of Belarus. These could be used as a potential threat to Polish troops entering Western Ukraine. Poland is highly keen on controlling Western Ukraine and, I suspect, will be prepared to negotiate that with Russia. I don’t think Polish are ready to be the next victim of American proxy war(s) against Russia.

Ukraine – landlocked, defeated and dependent

With this outcome unravelling, the days of the Zelensky Nazi regime would be numbered, and it will be relatively easy to find a replacement government to be installed in Kiev. It would have to be a government fully accepting the country’s demilitarisation and neutral status. Needless to say, a landlocked, defeated and dependent on foreign countries.