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Arms Expo – New submachine gun PPK-20 from Russia

One of the most interesting novelties of the Army-2021 forum was the new version of the PPK-20 submachine gun. It was presented by the Kalashnikov concern. This product is designed in the interests of the aerospace forces. The submachine gun is optimized for use in the equipment of military pilots and should provide their self-defense in emergency situations.

By order of the Ministry of Defense

The development of a promising submachine gun for the armed forces began several years ago. It was carried out within the framework of the Vityaz-MO ROC. The purpose of the work was to create an automatic weapon for a pistol cartridge for use in various structures of the army. Accordingly, it was required to provide high fire performance with limited dimensions and weight.

The first reports on the results of the ROC in the open press refer to the last year. So, in July, the Kalashnikov concern announced the successful completion of state tests. The interdepartmental commission recognized the product as meeting the customer’s requirements and suitable for mass production. It was recommended to assign the name of the new development “Kalashnikov submachine gun mod. 2020 “- in memory of the designer V.M. Kalashnikov, who laid the foundations for a modern line of such weapons.

Updated version of the PPK-20

Modern solutions

PPK-20 in its configuration last year externally significantly differed from the Vityaz-SN. The new version of the weapon for the Aerospace Forces also received a number of components that change its exterior and affect the ease of use.

One of the main requirements of the Aerospace Forces concerned the maximum reduction in the size of the weapon. In this regard, the submachine gun received a telescopic butt, folded by turning forward and to the right. When folded, the PPK-20 with a standard muzzle device has a length of only 410 mm. Unladen weight of the product, without ammunition, scope, etc. – 2.5 kg.

USM both PPK-20 retained the long flag of the fuse-translator of fire, characteristic of the AK. In the new modification, it was supplemented with small levers on the same axis, located on both sides of the weapon. This allows you to engage the safety or select the fire mode without removing the leading hand from the handle.

The weapon received a new forend with strips and slots for mounting the necessary devices. “Last year’s” PPK-20 has a bar only at the bottom, the new one – at the top and bottom. A similar bar is provided on the receiver cover. Mechanical sights are preserved in the front and rear of the forend and cover.

Controls: the standard translator is supplemented with a new lever

The PPK-20 kit includes a silent firing device. If necessary, it is installed directly on the flame arrester using a bayonet connection. This operation takes minimal time, but provides a dramatic reduction in noise and flash.


Author:

Ryabov Kirill

Is Azerbaijan torn apart by Persians, Turks and Israel?

Victory in the Karabakh war can play a cruel joke with Azerbaijan and its regime. Turkey and Israel have noticeably strengthened, helping Azerbaijan to deal with the Armenians. But Iran does not intend to put up with this. Iran is considering the Turks as its competitors and the Israelis as mortal enemies. Iran also does not want Azerbaijan, which it congratulated through clenched teeth on the victory, cut off Armenia, its important trade and strategic partner, from it. A sharp change in the geopolitical situation in the region, in which Russia has also strengthened its position, puts on the agenda interaction between Russians and Iranians in the Transcaucasus. They are all interested that the Turkish fleet does not appear one day in the Caspian Sea.

Half of historical Azerbaijan – both in area and in population – is part of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). At the same time, the two countries were on the verge of war. Baku and Tehran do not want to cross it. The war would be unprofitable for both of them. The enemies of both Baku and Tehran will push them to aggravate in every possible way. With the consent and sanction of the United States and Britain, of course.

Israeli concern

The situation is especially aggravated by Israel. They definitely expect to divert Iran to the north and push it against Turkey. It is a great idea that the two enemies of the Jewish state and at the same time regional rivals weaken each other. And the conflict between the Sunnis and Shiites continues to flare up.

Israeli media, referring to anonymous sources, report that the Azerbaijani security forces have launched a large-scale operation against “pro-Iranian elements” in their country. According to Israel Hayom, there are arrests of activists acting on behalf of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah  Sayyid Ali Khamenei. The same newspaper writes that Azerbaijan is considering the possibility of acquiring the Israeli Arrow 3 long-range missile defense system. Moreover, it is reported that President  Ilham Aliyev has decided to close the mission of the representative of the spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic in Azerbaijan.

The Jerusalem Post announces the arrival of a delegation of Israeli security officials in Azerbaijan. They are “to advise and express support to the Azerbaijani government against the backdrop of the continuing rise in tensions with Iran.” The source of the newspaper claims: “Israel has assured Azerbaijan that the Jewish state will support it and provide all possible assistance! Including technical assistance and air support in repelling any Iranian attack on its northern neighbor.”

Iran has officially protested in connection with the “attack” in the past few days on the building of its embassy in Azerbaijan, the Tasnim agency reported. This episode shows how intense the passions are.

Willingness number one

There are quite objective facts indicating a sharp aggravation of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations. The formal reason for this was the decision of Baku to make it difficult for Iranian trucks with goods to enter the Armenian part of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijanis began to demand a “road tax” of $ 260 from drivers. Two Iranians were detained on charges of delivering “illegal cargo” to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Iran also takes seriously Azerbaijan’s threats to lay a corridor to Nakhichevan by force. This would mean cutting off from Iran Armenia. Armenia is Iran’s important partner in the Caucasus.

Iran has entered a free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union. Armenia is the only EAEU country that has a land border with it. Therefore this direction is extremely important for Tehran. Under the pretext of military maneuvers, Iran transferred additional units of its armed forces to the border with Azerbaijan. There have not been such large-scale maneuvers in this area for at least 30 years. Armored units, artillery, helicopters and drones are involved.

The official goal of the maneuvers that started on October 1 is called checking and increasing the level of combat readiness of the Iranian armed forces and testing military equipment as close as possible to combat conditions. Quite symptomatic is their name – “Conquerors of Khaybar”. T refers to the victory of Muslims over the Jews in 629. That subsequently led to their expulsion from this and other oases north of Medina to Syria. It easily deciphers Iran’s indignation over the growing ties of Baku with Israel.

Israel is interested in forming bases in Azerbaijan

The Jewish state is quite capable of making the regions liberated from the Armenians in the south of Azerbaijan its base for conducting subversive activities against Iran from there. Turkey transferred Sunni militants from Syria there last year. Before the start of the maneuvers, according to the IRNA agency, Brigadier General Heydari, the commander of the ground forces of the IRI Armed Forces, called the Israeli presence in Azerbaijan “an undermining of security” in the region, but assured that it was “fully under our supervision.” Is there a hint of Iranian drones in Armenia as well?

Baku and Ankara promptly reciprocated Tehran. From October 5 to 8, large-scale joint Azerbaijani-Turkish exercises of ground forces and armored vehicles Sarsılmaz Kardeslik – 2021 (“Unwavering Brotherhood – 2021”) are being held in Nakhichevan, bordering Iran. 

Iran on October 5 closed its airspace for the delivery of military supplies from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan. In Baku, it was called a betrayal. And on the eve, Iranian Foreign Minister  Hossein Amir Abdollahian held talks in Tehran with his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan . It is not hard to guess what they discussed, especially against the backdrop of a tough diplomatic skirmish between Tehran and Baku with mutual accusations “surprising” and “regrettable.”

Recrimination

Speaking the other day in Jebrail, which had been recaptured from the Armenians, Aliyev openly threatened Iran:

When recently a mullah of some Iranian province fabricated slander against Azerbaijan, we did not pay attention to it. But then, unfortunately, the officials began to put forward unfounded accusations against us – allegedly Azerbaijan brought Israel to these regions … Is there evidence? No.

On the same day, Leyla Abdullayeva , head of the press service of the republic’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said: “We do not accept statements about the presence of any third forces near the Azerbaijani-Iranian border, provocative attempts by these forces, because these statements have no basis.” These claims, she said, cannot even be a subject of discussion. So Abdullayeva commented on the words of the Iranian Foreign Minister that “during the liberation of Karabakh, a number of terrorist movements entered the region, and Israel is also trying to take advantage of this tension.” Iran will not tolerate the presence of Israeli forces near its borders, Abdollahian said.

The spiritual leader and leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, spoke in the same spirit  “The recent situation in the north-west of the country must be resolved without the intervention and military presence of foreign forces in the region.”

Drawing conclusions

If the situation develops in this direction, and some external players, especially Israel and Turkey, push Baku and Tehran to do just that, a real war may become a fact. The biggest victim of this war, if it starts, will be the Azerbaijani regime. Moreover, in both cases – and if Turkey and Azerbaijan, which Israel will definitely help, will emerge victorious from it, and even more so if Iran gains the upper hand. In the latter case, not only the regime will suffer, but also the people.

The fact is that the state built by  Aliyev is too secular not only for the clerical Tehran, but also for Ankara, the moderate Islamist  Erdogan . Therefore, this regime will become the main victim of the conflict in both cases – even if Aliyev wins. 

So what?

Russia in this conflict will clearly observe its interests. They appear to be quiet at the moment but there is a lots of talking happening behind the scene.

At the end of the day, Russia will probably support Iran. That only after doing everything possible to prevent the conflict. Russia certainly does not want to see Turkey coming to the Caspian Sea via their alliance with Azerbaijan. Russia also does not want to see “North – South” corridor threatened.

The emergence of new players in Transcaucasia (Israel) and its inevitable destabilization is not to be to Russian liking. . But in Washington, they will only be glad about it. And you can be sure that London would love to see that too.

In this situation, a lot depends on the Azerbaijani president. He has no space to make a mistake. There are no guarantees that he will not make it. The best way for Baku is to distance itself as much as possible from Turkey and Israel. Only in this case will the conflict with Iran be extinguished. Only in this case Russia will stay almost neutral player between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The first global “green” energy crisis is not the last!

Here we are sinking in the next energy crisis. This time it will be ”green”.  Gas prices are rising like cryptocurrencies, oil has exceeded levels unseen since 2018. How will it end? And most importantly – when?

Georgy Bovt
candidate of historical sciences, political scientist

What is happening these days and weeks in Europe? Off-scale gas prices (some ten days ago, some doubted whether they would surpass $ 1,000 per thousand cubic meters, and on October 6 they came close to 2,000). And ill-considered, hasty abandonment of traditional forms of energy in favor of green energy.

Coal prices, by the way, are also hitting records. In some countries (in the UK, for example) they are even thinking about the reopening of coal mines. China also made a significant contribution to the rise in coal prices by banning the export of coal to one of its largest producers. They themselves, they say, do not have enough.

Energy companies are a big winners. The value of shares of the Gazprom is breaking records. Together with the oil industry, it pulls the entire domestic (Russian) stock market with it. The question is how long this feast will last during the coronavirus plague. The 30-fold increase in the gas price compared to May 2020 can hardly be called normal. Even taking into account the fact that in this case we are talking about futures, and the growth of the real price is much less. It is still very significant, and cannot pass without leaving a trace for the rest of the economy.

I must say that the European Union itself planted this bomb when, quite recently, it began to demand that the market switch to short-term contracts, which are obviously more volatile. Most recently, this has been superimposed on such a purely technical exchange factor as massive margin calls at hedge funds. Those who decided to play “bears”, believing that prices simply have nowhere to rise higher, were cruelly mistaken. For tens of billions of dollars. 

Preconditions for this crysis were formed back in the northern summer

The preconditions for the market acceleration were formed back in the summer. It turned out to be unusually hot increasing, in particular, the demand for electricity air conditioners. This was superimposed on a sharp increase in demand from China. It was the first to emerge from the coronavirus economic torpor. Already in the summer, the main supplies of LNG were switched to Southeast Asia. Some in the EU considered it important to counter “gas dependence on Russia.” The reduction in supplies to Europe reached 20%. These volumes were not replenished by anyone, including the Americans, who previously praised their LNG as a means of liberation from the “energy diktat of Moscow.” Americans (and everyone else) could not resist big price increase in Asia.

It is also worth noting that Europe’s own gas production continued to decline. This happened due to the depletion of explored deposits and against the background of the refusal to develop new ones for the sake of the “green energy transition”. That resulting in reduction and then a complete cessation of such investments. 

Who they will blame?

Gazprom made its own small contribution. It has never booked additional volumes of supplies through Ukraine this year. Everything is clear according to the letter of the 2019 transit agreement with the Ukrainian Naftogaz. Strictly speaking, Gazprom was not obliged to do this. A contract is a contract: business, nothing personal. Also, the Russian gas monopoly short-term cut by 10% in August supplies through the Yamal-Europe pipeline and stopped selling gas through the electronic trading platform for a year in advance. It should be noted that gas supplies from Russia to Europe in January-June increased by 17 billion cubic meters compared to the same period last year. By the end of September the increase was already 18 billion cubic meters – while other suppliers did not increase exports. So Gazprom did not violate any obligations.

However, the inevitable search for the “extreme” in such a situation may force some in the West to again “blame” Moscow. . And also China, which buys up everything on the market with a vacuum cleaner. Not America, which, although it did not fulfill its promises, but they were not contracted. . And you certainly cannot blame those who do not want to abandon the provisions of the Third Energy Package (EU). According to that Gazprom will not be able to use more than half of the pipe’s (Nord Stream 2) capacity. Yet for the sake of life-giving competition!

The short-term consequences of the energy crisis are quite predictable. This is, firstly, the surge in inflation around the world, which is already pumped up by trillions of emissions of dollars, euros and yen, committed to support economies (and stock markets) in the midst of a pandemic.

Transition to “green energy” will be long and expensive

A number of countries have started talking about rationalizing energy supplies. China has actually started to do this. And his example is very revealing and clearly demonstrates that the transition to “green energy” will be difficult, long and expensive.

Power generation in China is more than 70% dependent on coal. It is the dirtiest source of energy in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. However it is one of the cheapest. The CCP has set a goal of achieving a carbon neutral economy by 2060 – ten years after the European Union. Well, once the party (CCP) has set a goal, it must be fulfilled. Investment in the coal industry is falling and so is production. So far, it has not been possible to fill the shortage with renewable energy.

The example of China and Europe suggests that all of this is just the beginning of a long journey towards green energy. The current crisis can rightfully be called the First World Crisis of the Green Transition. And such excesses will repeat and grow. The process will continue not for years, but for decades. Energy systems – at least temporarily, until the right balance is found – are becoming more vulnerable, not more resilient (including to the vagaries of the weather). And it will be very difficult to find and maintain this balance.

Where will electricity come from?

Only one conversion of road transport to electricity will lead to an increase in demand for it by 20-30%. Where will it come from? How difficult will this very “energy transition” be made by growing inflation (as a consequence of the general rise in energy prices) in combination with increased price volatility? Nobody knows yet. That is, with a high probability, the “energy transition” will be accompanied not by economic growth, but by an economic recession or stagnation against the background of shocks in certain sectors of the economy.

Spurred on by loud political slogans (and the corresponding actions of state regulators), investors are heavily investing in “renewable energy”. That is certainly good thing but they are stopping investing in traditional ones.  Wind and solar electricity must be stored somewhere, it is not coal, which can be taken out of the ground as needed. This means that huge storage capacities are needed. 

In business, this is called unpredictability. And it costs money. The technological solution to this problem takes time – and also money. Until recently, a model worked in Europe. Gas generation served as insurance for renewable energy. However, insurance does not work properly in the face of such a sharp rise in prices.

Of course, the scale of the catastrophe that happened should not be exaggerated. And all the more, you shouldn’t bury the “green energy”. At stake is survival on planet Earth and preservation of its climate in a form acceptable to the human race. As the current crisis is overcome, new long-term solutions will be found. 

Russia & India have huge potential in energy sector

The potential for increased cooperation between Russia and India in the energy sphere is immense. Investors in both nations looking to expand mutually beneficial projects, India’s energy minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, told RT.

There’s a lot of ongoing cooperative work in the sector of petroleum and natural gas [between Russia and India]. It contains tremendous potential.”

He noted that Russia has many ongoing projects in the energy arena in India and is looking to further invest in the country. As it was expressed at a number of meetings with Russian companies at the EEF this week. According to Puri, India’s investments in Russia’s energy sector amount to some $16 billion. Russia has invested around $14 billion in India. 

Puri also stated that India’s import dependence on liquid hydrocarbons and gas is about 85%. Only about 1% of the country’s energy imports come from Russia. As India forecasts its economy to grow to $5 trillion in the next three to four years, he expects the country’s energy per capita consumption to grow “exponentially,” giving further ground for boosting energy cooperation between the two states.

We’ve got the roadmap in terms of the potential [in the energy sphere]. Both sides would want long-term agreements which provide predictability, stability and prices,” Puri said.

Russia and India are strategic partners in energy secotr

He added that he expects a “fascinating dialogue” about expanding energy inflows to India in the near future, as the country’s energy demand makes it a rather attractive market. 

No matter where you find oil and gas, somebody has to consume it. Many existing markets have reached a point where they have their sources, they have imports. India is one country where you can’t go wrong on the demand assessment. So potentially it’s a fascinating dialogue to have,” Puri said.

India is in need of energy and energy sources are here [in Russia]. Russia and India are strategic partners in energy and nobody has a second opinion on that,” he concluded.

During the EEF plenary session on Friday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also spoke positively about energy cooperation between India and Russia. He said it can bring stability to the global energy market, calling it a “major pillar of our strategic partnership.”

In his virtual address, Modi said Indian workers were taking part in gas projects in the “Amur region, from Yamal to Vladivostok and onward to Chennai.” He added that Indian authorities “envisage an energy and trade bridge.”

I am happy that the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor is making headway. This connectivity project, along with the International North-South [Transport] Corridor will bring India and Russia physically closer to each other,” Modi stated.

China wants to build a kilometer-sized starship!

While major technical hurdles stand in the way, an extra-large spacecraft (starship) could have broad applications

By DAVE MAKICHUK

In an effort to galvanize NASA’s return to the forefront, then-US Vice President Mike Pence sought to re-create the 1960s Cold War space race. Then the United States beat the Soviet Union to the lunar surface, The Washington Post reported.

But this time the role of rival was played not by the Soviet Union, but by China. Pence warned that China was trying “to seize the lunar strategic high ground.”

Bill Nelson, President Biden’s new NASA administrator, has carried on that hawkish rhetoric. He is casting China as “a very aggressive competitor” that has big ambitions in space and is challenging America’s leadership. The question one should ask is – what American leadership is he talking about?

“Watch the Chinese,” he recently warned.

Watch them, indeed!

They have now announced one of the most ambitious space projects in human history. It is a plan to build a kilometer-level starship at least be 10 times the length of the International Space Station (ISS). The news that will likely reverberate with NASA and the Pentagon, The Global Times reported.

Experts say that a number of major technical and management hurdles stand in the way. However, the in-orbit assembly of an extra-large spacecraft could have broad applications, such as the building of a space power plant that will generate electricity for the planet.

China is studying the project as part of its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period. It is expected to become a major strategic vehicle for its future use of space resources, deep-space explorations and long-term human stays in outer space.

Deep Space Nine 

As soon as the news came out, it lit up the Chinese internet, especially among space sci-fi fans. Some thrilled netizens jokingly compared it to the “starships” in movies and TV series, such as Deep Space Nine.

However, space experts say that there will be a great deal of challenges that must be overcome, apart from the huge demand for manpower and resources, considering the tremendous size and complexity of the spacecraft.

“Take the ISS as an example. Due to thrust limitations of launching vehicles, it also adopted the approach to assemble the parts in-orbit, which were delivered in separate spaceflights over a number of years,” Pang Zhihao, a Beijing-based space expert and researcher from the China Academy of Space Technology, told the Global Times.

“It took the ISS 12 years — from 1998 to 2010 — to finally complete the construction. And by the time of completion, the first module that was launched more than a decade prior had almost reached its lifespan.

“It can be speculated that the kilometer-level spacecraft will take even longer to build. And it will have much higher requirements for the lifespan of its core components, and the ability to replace components flexibly,” he added. 

Researchers will be tasked to minimize the weight of the modules and the number of launches to reduce construction costs, Pang said.

They also must ensure the controllability of the overall structure, so that attitude drifts, deformation and vibration can be limited during in-orbit assembly.

The complexity not only rests on technical issues, but also the overall planning and management of the project. It must also consider the threats of space debris.

Many difficulties but massive potential

The difficulties to construct such a spacecraft are great. However, experts say it has massive scientific and military potential.

It could be used for building a space power plant. Therefore enabling a large-scale all-weather power generation by transferring solar power to electricity and beaming it down to Earth. 

China has also made breakthroughs in developing its new super-heavy-lift carrier rocket. It is rolling out the country’s first 9.5-meter-diameter rocket tank bottom and liquid booster engine earlier this month. 

The launch vehicle may point to the Long March 9 carrier rocket. It will be used for future crewed lunar missions, deep space exploration and space infrastructure.

China launched the core of its space station in April, and sent three astronauts up in June.

The space station probably won’t be complete until late 2022. However, there is already a long queue of experiments from across the world waiting to go up, Nature.com reported.

Scientists say that the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) has tentatively approved more than 1,000 experiments, several of which have already been launched.

Before April, the International Space Station (ISS) was the only space laboratory in orbit. Many researchers say Tiangong (or “heavenly palace”) is a welcome addition for astronomical and Earth observation, and for studying how microgravity and cosmic radiation affect phenomena such as bacterial growth and fluid mixing.

Are crewed space stations too costly?

However, others argue that crewed space stations are costly, and serve more of a political than a scientific purpose.

Increased scientific access to space is of scientific benefit globally. It does not matter who builds and operates platforms.

“We need more space stations, because one space station is definitely not enough,” adds Agnieszka Pollo, an astrophysicist at the National Centre for Nuclear Research in Warsaw who is part of a team sending an experiment to study Y-ray bursts.

Meanwhile, don’t look for any international cooperation any time soon.

NASA has been barred by law since 2011 from partnering with China! No Chinese astronaut has ever been aboard the ISS, which has been host to astronauts from nearly 20 nations.

There is no prospect of that changing anytime soon in a Washington where China is seen as a fierce competitor in a wide range of technological endeavors, from quantum computers to the rollout of 5G.

That is especially true for space, because the technologies used in space also are used for national defense.

“These deep concerns about China as a military competitor forestalls cooperation in dual-use technologies. There are no technologies used in space that aren’t dual-use,” he said.

US and Chinese cooperation in space would require the kind of detente that the US and Soviet Union achieved during the Cold War.

“But we are very far from that.”


Sources: The Global Times, The Washington PostCenter for Strategic and International StudiesNature.comChina Academy of Space Technology

The AUKUS preparing a nuclear war to sustain Taiwan

The official reactions to the announcement of the Australian-British-US pact (AUKUS) are only about the termination of the Australian-French arms contract. As terrible as this is for the shipyards, it is only a collateral consequence of a reversal of alliances aimed at preparing for a war against China

by Thierry Meyssan

The announcement of the Australian-British-US (A-UK-US) pact was like an earthquake in the Indo-Pacific region.

There is no doubt that Washington is preparing for a long-term military confrontation with China.

Until now, the Western deployment to contain China politically and militarily has involved the United States and the United Kingdom as well as France and Germany. Today, the Europeans are left out. And tomorrow the area will be controlled by the Quad+ (US and UK, plus Australia, India and Japan). Washington is preparing a war in one or two decades.

France and Germany have not been consulted on this strategy. Nor even warned of its public announcement! However, some other countries had been warned, such as Indonesia.

It is logical that London and Washington should rely on Camberra rather than Paris. Australia is a member of the “Five Eyes” with which France is just associated. The entry into the game of Japan and especially India puts an end to a long period of uncertainty. More troubling is the role assigned to Germany. Germans could join the “Five Eyes”, but not the Quad. Meaning – spying on telecommunications, but not military action.

Alliances shaken up

The A-NZ-US, which linked Australia, New Zealand and the United States, has not been in operation since 1985. It has been definitively buried. New Zealand had affirmed its policy of nuclear disarmament and consequently refused entry to its ports to nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered ships. Since the Pentagon refuses to reveal these “details”, no US warship has entered the country. Future Australian submarines will also be banned.

For the moment, the European Union has not reacted. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was giving a state of the Union address on the same day the AUKUS pact was announced, is paralyzed. She was talking about her new strategy in the Indo-Pacific area! All while the Brexit Brits were pulling the rug out from under her. Not only is the European Union not a military power, but those of its members who are, will no longer have a say.

NATO is silent. It had ambitions to expand in the Indo-Pacific and understands that it will not be part of the game.

ASEAN has not reacted either, but the Indonesians who host its general secretariat have already expressed their disappointment. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations was conceived during the Cold War like ANZUS or the EU to contain the communist bloc. However it evolved afterwards. Unlike the EU, which has become a supra-national bureaucracy, ASEAN, influenced by the ideology of the Non-Aligned Movement. It aspires to form a vast free trade area that includes China. Without delay, many Indonesian intellectuals have denounced the torpedoing of this dream of peace by the AUKUS.

Beijing is offering economic exchanges to all, while Washington is offering war

China and Russia, the main enemies designated by the Anglo-Saxons, have not yet reacted. Unlike the West, they never communicate about their intentions. But they communicate about the decisions they have already taken and implemented. Speaking for itself, China has expressed indignation at the Anglo-Saxon mentality of forming the broadest and most powerful alliances possible without regard to the intricacies of each player. This is not a communication trick: the Chinese consider everyone as an equal with their own particularities. The day after the AUKS announcement, China formally applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It is the successor organization to President Obama’s proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership. The coincidence of the two events is officially purely fortuitious. In practice, Beijing is offering economic exchanges to all, while Washington is offering war.

The nuclear Spectre

Until now, and probably still today, the United States considers that having nuclear-powered ships opens the way quickly to the construction of atomic bombs. This is why it has only offered nuclear propulsion technology to its British ally. Therefore – and whatever the Australians say – building nuclear-powered submarines prepares Australia for entry into the club of atomic powers. The war against China will be a nuclear war!

From this point of view, Japan’s entry into the Quad after the traumas of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is an achievement.

Until now, only the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council had nuclear-powered submarines. India has become the sixth and Australia is expected to be the seventh.

Since the United States can no longer maintain its rhetoric of dual-use nuclear technology, it can no longer claim that Iranian nuclear research is for military purposes. This should pave the way for open cooperation between Washington and Tehran, which Israel immediately anticipated.

THE downgrading of the Europeans

The first loser in this new architecture is France. It has lost its status as a global power. It still retains its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

The decline of Paris was foreseeable since its armies were placed under U.S. command within NATO’s Integrated Command in 2009. Today, they are no longer able to defend the entire French territory. Instead they send expeditionary forces to defend US interests in Africa. Indeed, the United States has still not managed to deploy AfriCom on the black continent. It uses French ground troops, which it supports with its air surveillance system.

Paris reacted… by canceling a gala event at its embassy in the United States. The Quai d’Orsay asked the State Department for urgent explanations in the hours preceding the AUKUS announcement. In the end, it considered that Australia had knowingly hidden this project from it, which was instigated by the United States. He therefore recalled his ambassadors in Canberra and Washington. France decided to communicate about the contract of the century cancelled by the Australians. This $90 billion agreement is not much compared to what is at stake and what it has lost.

Paris is all the more stunned because it had thought it had established a privileged relationship with London. Secret negotiations were under way to move the base of the British nuclear-powered submarines (Trident) to France in the event of Scotland’s secession from the United Kingdom.

France can take comfort in the fact that its downgrading is taking place in the context of the more general downgrading of all Europeans. The fact that Germany may eventually fare less badly is incidental. Berlin is only allowed to be an economic power and never since the Second World War to be a global political power.

French presence in Indo-Pacific region

France is not only a European metropolis. It is also a constellation of territories all over the world that gives it the second largest maritime domain in the world (after the United States). In the Indo-Pacific region, it has the departments of Reunion and Mayotte, the communities of New Caledonia and French Polynesia, the territory of Wallis and Futuna, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands (TAAF). All of this is inhabited by 1.6 million French nationals.

France is therefore a power in the Indo-Pacific. As such, it has offered to help its European Union partners, which it has taken care to place outside the US-China strategic rivalry. It is a member of the Indian Ocean Commission. France participates in the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ summits, in its police and intelligence coordination (ASEANAPOL) and should soon join the Regional Cooperation Against Piracy (RECAAP). Ultimately, France, which is to assume the presidency of the European Council during the first half of 2022, planned to make use of its roots in the Indo-Pacific as one of the European Union’s challenges.


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United States is losing Europe for alliance with Australia

Was Biden wrong in upseting the oldest ally of United States – France?

I believe it is worth returning to this topic as it is significant on a very broad – global scene. New alliance between Australia, United Kingdom and United States (AUKUS). It would be wrong to see this not really new alliance as “Asian NATO”. Counting remaining two members of the “Quad” (India and Japan) would be, in my opinion premature. That particularly applies for India. India does not want to abandon its Non-Aligned status in return of irritating China. Anyone planning to see Japan as part of that alliance is forgetting enormous historical burden it would bring with it. Not even South Korea would want to join it. Not to mention other Asian states that were victims of Japanese aggression during WWII.

It might turn that by taking his first step towards creation of “Asian NATO”, Joe Biden unintentionally made the first step towards dismantilng NATO! If this turns to be correct prediction then we are witnessing geopolitical change comparable to the fall of Berlin Wall. The “Old Europe” and France in particular are shocked and speachless. Not much is happening behind the closed doors right now but that will change soon. Results of German election for federal parliament are still coming in. As soon as there is new government formed in Germany, there will be very active talks regarding future positioning of “Old Europe”. I have no doubts about that.

What if Washington’s hopes of Green Party in Germany holding country firmly under control? Those curious to see what the real “elections meddling” looks like should pay attention – pressure on all major actors on German political scene will be applied from Washington, Moscow, Beijing and Paris.

Franco-American relations worse since 1778

Defence alliance with the UK and Australia makes sense for United States. These are two countries that followed military adventure of US without exception. However, linking it to France – and the EU – makes no sense in the process. If this announcement was made without breaking contract for submarines between Australia and France, there would be no problems. Appart from countries involved it would be noticed only in Beijing and with mild reaction. With submarines being part of it the new alliance became global news. Reactions from Paris and Beijing were almost equaly lous. And, nobody should be surprised with that.

Biden administration has found itself embroiled in an avoidable conflict with Paris over the canceled multibillion-dollar defense contract between France and Australia. This gap is significant in the annals of Franco-American relations. For the first time since 1778, France recalled its ambassador from the United States. And it is unlikely that all this will soon subside. Inevitably, this will have serious consequences for the entire American alliance with France, the European Union and NATO. Ultimately, China and Russia will benefit from this turn of events.

Lack of sophistication

In fact, the United States and the United Kingdom needed to strengthen their military relations with Australia. It is the most powerful English-speaking democracy in this part of the world. Biden should be credited for doing something truly grandiose. Offering Australia patented American nuclear submarine technology – which Washington hasn’t done for another country since 1958 – to build a strong military alliance to curb China’s rise to India in the Pacific Ocean.

However, nowhere was it written that this union was to be created at the expense of a democratic France. In France, Washington has a capable military partner. The strongest on the European continent.  Like the United States and Britain, France also has interests in the Indo-Pacific.

Five years ago, Australia wanted to replenish its submarine fleet. Its Collins-class diesel submarines were in need of replacement. French defense contractor Naval Group was tasked with replacing six Australian Collins-class diesel submarines with 12 French Barracuda-class diesel submarines.

The deal began to collapse at least 15 months before the intervention of the Americans and British. It also became clear that Australia’s leaders really didn’t want another set of diesel submarines.

Ultimately, however, if Australia does not intend to use nuclear warheads on its submarines, then a nuclear submarine may not be worth the investment and time that Australia requires. Especially given that Australia lacks the infrastructure needed to build and maintain nuclear submarines.

It never occurred to anyone in Canberra or Washington to warn their friends in Paris about Australia’s imminent abandonment of French submarines in favor of Anglo-American ones. Was there really nothing that the Biden administration could not offer as comfort for Paris? It seemed like “adults” were ruling Washington again!

Losing Europe to win Australia?

Biden’s indifference to the interests of France provoked the outrage of the French. In my opinion, combined with some other factors, it could well lead to a serious collapse of the Euro-American alliance.

The severing of Franco-American relations over the Australian submarine deal may have been just the latest in a long string of incidents in which Europe’s leaders needed to take the final step in charting a new course further away from Washington. It will not happen soon but possibility of very different relationship between EU and Russia is quite realistic. Are we going to see Eurasia from Lisbon to Vladivostok without sanctions and walls?