It became a world premiere: the first Russian “electric aircraft” – the Yak-40LL flying laboratory with a demonstrator of hybrid power plant (GSU) technologies flew to MAKS-2021. The flying laboratory flew off perfectly
Experts note the clear coherence of the joint work of the aircraft systems and the GSU, which includes the world’s first superconducting electric aircraft engine. It complements the aircraft’s two turbojet engines. The use of high-temperature superconductivity technologies in the future will significantly reduce the weight and dimensions of electrical machines and increase the efficiency. This is critically important for aviation: flying is always a struggle with weight. And here we are ahead of the world by 2-3 years, because no one has yet demonstrated such an approach and such technologies have not been shown.
A 500 kW superconducting electric motor rotating the propeller is located in the bow of the Yak-40LL. There is also a liquid nitrogen cryogenic cooling system. The electric motor is powered by an electric generator rotated by a turboshaft gas turbine engine, it is installed in the tail section, and a battery pack. You take off on an electric motor, wherever possible, you start the gas turbine engine, recharge the battery at the permitted altitude, continue the flight again on electricity and sit down on the propellers.
Prior to the start of flight tests, the unique motor and its components were bench tested at CIAM. Then the GSU was installed on the Yak-40 aircraft, on the basis of which a flying laboratory was created at SibNIA. After confirming the stable joint operation of the electric motor and all aircraft systems during the ground test complex, the Yak-40LL moved to the flight test stage.
According to scientists, they hope to receive the entire set of technologies by 2026-2027, which will make it possible to create a regional aircraft on such a hybrid scheme by 2030. But we intend to go even further, namely, to use not nitrogen as a coolant in the engine, but liquefied hydrogen, which will also be fuel. It actually gives no emissions at all. This will be an even more complex scheme – for large aircraft, for long-range aviation. However, this is already the prospect of 2035 and beyond.
GSU “electrolyte” was developed by the Central Institute of Aviation Motors named after P.I. Baranova (CIAM, part of the Research Center “Institute named after NE Zhukovsky”) in broad cooperation of domestic enterprises. Thus, an innovative electric motor was created by the SuperOx company by order of the Advanced Research Fund. Among the participants in the work – FSUE “SibNIA named after S.A. Chaplygin” (SibNIA, also part of the Research Center “Institute named after N.E. Zhukovsky”), Ufa State Aviation Technical University, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow Aviation Institute ( National Research University). The customer of the research work “Electrolet SU-2020” is the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation.
– At MAKS-2019, we presented a model of this flying laboratory and individual elements of the power plant. And at MAKS-2021, it has already taken off into the sky. During these two years, CIAM and our project partners have gained valuable practical experience in the development of hybrid power plants and the use of superconductivity in electric motors. We are already using the gained experience in other projects, including the use of hydrogen as a fuel, – said Mikhail Gordin, General Director of CIAM.
“We create superconducting materials and technologies that are needed to create efficient electric aircraft. During MAKS, we, together with our colleagues, clearly demonstrated a very important step on this path – a flying laboratory with a superconducting electric motor made its first demonstration flight. In the future, superconductors in combination with hydrogen fuel will open up a real way to create efficient and environmentally friendly aviation, ”says Andrey Vavilov, Chairman of the SuperOx Board of Directors.
– In flight tests, the most difficult task was to determine the effect of blowing the propeller of an electric motor on the operation of the propulsion engines in flight and the features in case of its failure, which was verified during flights, as well as to determine the features of the longitudinal stability of the aircraft during rebalancing arising. Everything turned out to be within acceptable limits, – says the general director of SibNIA, honored test pilot of the Russian Federation Vladimir Barsuk.
All developers of aviation technology in the world are engaged in the study of low-noise and environmentally friendly GSUs, primarily for promising production aircraft of small and regional aviation. Their advantage lies in the ability, on the one hand, to benefit from energy efficient, environmentally friendly electrical technologies, and on the other hand, to maintain an acceptable weight efficiency by optimizing the design and operating modes of gas turbine or piston aircraft engines.
– The technologies that we use in our “electric plane” are a breakthrough for the global aircraft industry. So far, we are testing innovative electric motors at the flying laboratory, but by about 2030, the Zhukovsky Institute expects to present a number of aircraft with fundamentally different economic and environmental indicators, including noise and emissions. This technological breakthrough could not have been made without the active interest and funding of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia and the Foundation for Advanced Research, ”sums up Andrei Dutov, Director General of the N.Ye. Zhukovsky Institute.
A giant wind-farm off the south coast is one of more than 150 wind power projects planned in Vietnam; the 1GW Vinh Phong project will be funded by a Russian-Belgian JV, but Hanoi needs to improve its clunky electricity grid so renewable projects can be fully incorporated in coming years
(AF) A plethora of international players are beating a path to Vietnam to take part in its renewables ramp-up – the largest in Southeast Asia – which includes both solar and onshore wind and now even an offshore wind project development.
The most recent to show interest includes Russian state-owned oil and gas producer Zarubezhneft and Belgian marine contractor DEME Offshore.
The two signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to build the proposed Vinh Phong project. It is a 1-gigawatt (GW) offshore wind farm proposal with a cost of $3.2 billion. Vinh Phong is located in southern Vietnam, northeast of Ho Chi Minh City, the country’s business hub.
The two partners look to commission the first phase of the project, with 600-megawatts (MW) worth of capacity, by 2026, prior to a second phase with a further 400MW capacity by 2030. If plans hold tight, it could be Vietnam’s first offshore wind farm and it is anticipated that more will follow.
Zarubezhneft said it will share investment costs with a specially formed investment vehicle called DEME Concessions Wind. Under the MoU, the two firms will get oil and gas producing venture Vietsovpetro and DEME Offshore to manage the construction process.
Vietsovpetro, a joint venture between Zarubezhneft and state-run PetroVietnam, already operates several offshore oil and gas blocks in Vietnam.
Zarubezhneft set a goal of entering both the wind and solar sector in Vietnam, Cuba, Southern Europe and Russia. These plans, not surprisingly, suffered setbacks due to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic last year and a subsequent pullback in global oil prices amid the worst slump in demand for oil ever, which caused a drop to multi-year lows. However, global oil prices have recovered, with the global oil benchmark, London-traded Brent crude, now hovering above $70 per barrel, with price appreciation and forecasts that demand will increase for the rest of the year.
Vietnam’s clean energy transition
Zarubezhneft’s disclosure comes as Vietnam undergoes systemic changes in its energy sector. This stems from a forecast natural gas supply shortage that will impact its power generation capacity with potential brown and black-outs, mostly earmarked for the more populated south. However, Covid-19 related economic contraction has pushed that forecast back at least a year or two.
Vietnam’s energy quandary also stems from steady economic growth and more energy consumption, as well as geopolitical interference. Over the past several years, China has prevented PetroVietnam and its foreign partners from developing natural gas resources in Vietnam’s own UN-mandated 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea, a problem not dissimilar to that faced by the Philippines.
To offset this supply shortage, Hanoi initially focused on developing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. Currently, two LNG import terminals are being constructed in the southern part of the country. With at least six more approved, and possibly more considering projects pending approval at various provincial levels. Vietnam also has as many as 22 LNG-to-Power projects in its soon to be released Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8), to 2030 with guidance to 2045.
Over 150 wind projects proposed
Vietnam has marked advantages in its renewables ambitions over many of its neighbors in the region. It is including a vast coastline of some 3,260 km (2,030 miles), excluding islands. It is ideal for both offshore and near-shore wind-power development. By way of comparison, only around 3% of neighbouring Thailand’s land mass has suitable wind speeds needed to drive turbines, which greatly hinders the country’s capacity to develop wind power.
Vietnam’s solar radiation in most parts of the country is also ideal for solar project development. And it has contributed to its quick build-out, which seems to have peaked last year.
Much of the country’s recent success with solar can also be attributed to Hanoi approving generous feed-in-tariffs (FIT). These tariffs encourage investment in renewable energy by guaranteeing an above-market price for producers. Since they usually involve long-term contracts, FITs help mitigate the risks inherent in renewable energy production.
Tax exemptions to reduce investment risks
The government has also approved FITs for its wind-power development, with those tariffs up for review at the end of October. It also offers various tax exemptions to reduce investment risks.
Yet, Vietnam’s wind power development pales in comparison to its solar build-out. By the end of 2020, wind power accounted for just 1% (670MW) of the country’s energy mix. It is compared to 16.6GW for solar, including rooftop solar, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Under PDP8, the next power development plan, the country aims to ramp-up solar capacity to 18.6GW and wind capacity to 18GW by 2030. Vinh Phong, for its part, is one of as many as 157 wind farm projects proposed in Vietnam.
Three weeks ago, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) signed a $116-million loan with three Vietnamese firms to finance the construction and operation of three 48MW wind farms, totaling 144MW, in the central province of Quang Tri.
The projects will increase Vietnam’s wind-power capacity by as much as 30%, helping it to also offset the country’s still troubling reliance on coal needed for power generation. Coal still makes nearly 40% of the country’s energy mix, and that figure looks likely to remain steady until to at least the middle of the next decade.
The ADB’s move three weeks ago was its first wind-power project in Vietnam and comes just a month after the bank said it would stop funding most fossil fuel projects in the region, even natural gas, under most scenarios.
Electricity grid needs urgent improvements
However, as promising as Vietnam’s renewables build-out is, several problems remain, including power grid curtailment. Simply put, the country needs new transmission and distribution infrastructure to accommodate additional capacity and transmit the new power to where it’s needed.
The problem is already being felt by a number of power projects that have had to curtail production since transmission lines are already operating at capacity. Especially in areas where there is a concentration of solar power. This has resulted in less electricity being produced, less revenue earned and an inability of some project backers to service debts incurred to build projects.
Similar problems – depending on each location’s specific grid development – could see otherwise bankable wind power projects, (onshore, near-shore and offshore) unable to obtain necessary funding to go forward.
But the Vietnamese government is now starting to address this problem. It recently adopted a new law that improves and prioritizes grid development. And grid development is now a priority in the draft PDP8, the first time it’s been included in the country’s PDP.
However, expanding grid capacity is both capital and time intensive. Build-out times can range to as much as five years or more. Other countries are also confronting similar situations when building renewable power projects, including heavyweights such as Germany and the UK.
There are some short-term solutions for grid congestion, however, such as utility scale battery storage, grid enhancing techniques, plus topology optimization software. All of these improve grid resilience and reliability, and prevent bottlenecks, but the long-term solution is still expanding Vietnam’s transmission grid.
LONDON – Hydrogen is touted as an inevitable green fuel of the future. Tell that to the people who will have to ship it across the globe at hypercold temperatures close to those in outer space.
Yet that is exactly what designers are attempting to do.
In the biggest technological challenge for merchant shipping in decades, companies are beginning to develop a new generation of vessels that can deliver hydrogen to heavy industry. They are betting plants worldwide will convert to the fuel and propel the transition to a lower-carbon economy.
There are at least three projects developing pilot ships that will be ready to test transporting the fuel in Europe and Asia within the next three years, the companies involved said.
The major challenge is to keep the hydrogen chilled at minus 253 degrees Celsius. It is only 20 degrees above absolute zero, the coldest possible temperature — so it stays in liquid form, while avoiding the risk that parts of a vessel could crack.
That’s almost 100 degrees Celsius colder than temperatures needed to transport liquefied natural gas (LNG). That required its own shipping revolution about 60 years ago.
Japan’s Kawasaki Heavy Industries has already built the world’s first ship to transport hydrogen, Suiso Frontier. It said the prototype vessel was undergoing sea trials. A demonstration maiden voyage of some 9,000 kilometers from Australia to Japan expected in coming months.
“There is the next phase of the project already running to build a commercial-scale hydrogen carrier by the mid-2020s. An aim is to go commercial in 2030.
The aim is to use hydrogen to power commercial vessels as well in the future
The 1,250 cubic-meter tank to hold the hydrogen is double-shelled and vacuum-insulated to help maintain the temperature.
Kawasaki’s prototype, a relatively modest 116 meters long and 8,000 gross tons, will run on diesel on its maiden voyage. The company aims to use hydrogen to power future, larger commercial vessels, Nishimura said.
In South Korea, one of the world’s major shipbuilding hubs, another project is in the works.
Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering is the first company in the country working on building a commercial liquefied hydrogen carrier.
To tackle the hypercold challenge, the company said it was working with a steelmaker to develop high-strength steel and new welding technology, along with enhanced insulation, to contain the hydrogen and mitigate the risks of pipes or tanks cracking.
On the other side of the world, in Norway, efforts are also underway to build a hydrogen supply chain on the west coast of the country. One group looking to pilot a test ship that could transport hydrogen to planned filling stations. That would be able to service ships as well as trucks and buses.
Norwegian shipping company Wilhelmsen Group is working on the latter project with partners to build a “roll-on/roll-off” ship that will be able to transport liquid hydrogen by way of containers or trailers that are driven onboard, said Per Brinchmann, the company’s vice president, special projects.
Liquid or Gas Option?
The ship is expected to be operational in the first half of 2024, he added.
“We believe once we have this demonstration vessel operational the intention will be to build up bunkering hubs on the west coast (of Norway),” Brinchmann said, referring to the filling stations.
Other companies are exploring a different route to avoid the cold conundrum and what may happen when hydrogen atoms interact with metal.
Canada’s Ballard Power Systems and Australia’s Global Energy Ventures, for example, are working together to develop a ship to transport compressed hydrogen in gas form.
“The earliest time-frame would be 2025-26,” said Nicolas Pocard, vice president marketing and strategic partnerships with Ballard.
The advantage of this gas approach is that it does not require any extreme temperatures. But the downside is that less hydrogen can be transported in a cargo than liquid hydrogen, which is why some of the early movers are opting for the latter.
Wilhelmsen’s Brinchmann said that a 12-meter container would carry about 800 to 1,000 kg of pressurized hydrogen gas, but up to 3,000 kilograms of liquid hydrogen.
Such endeavors are far from risk free.
They are expensive, for a start. None of the companies would comment on the cost of their vessels, though three industry specialists said that such ships would cost more than vessels carrying LNG, which can run to $50 to $240 million each depending on size.
“The cost of a vessel transporting hydrogen will mainly be driven by the cost of the storage system. Storing liquid hydrogen could be very expensive because of its complexity,” Carlo Raucci, marine decarbonization consultant with ship certifier LR, added separately.
More than 30 countries support hydrogen rollout plans
The pilot projects, which are still in experimental stages, must overcome these technical challenges, and also rely on hydrogen catching on as a widely used fuel in coming years.
None of this is certain, though the state support being thrown behind this cleaner-burning fuel suggests it does have a future in the global energy mix.
More than 30 countries, including several in Europe such as France and Germany as well the likes of South Korea and Australia, have released hydrogen rollout plans.
Total planned investments could reach over $300 billion through to 2030 if hundreds of projects using the fuel come to fruition, according to a recent report by the Hydrogen Council association and consultants McKinsey.
The role of shipping would be important to unlocking the potential to convert industries such as steel and cement to hydrogen.
Those two heavy-industry sectors alone are estimated to produce over 10% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and overcoming their need for fossil fuels is one of the key challenges of the global transition to a lower-carbon economy.
Tiago Braz, VP energy with Norwegian marine technology developer Hoglund, said the company was working with steel specialists and tank designers on engineering a ship cargo system that can be used for transporting liquid hydrogen.\
Still in early stages
“We are at the early stages with hydrogen carriers. But unlike when LNG was first rolled out, the industry is more flexible to change,” Braz said.
“It should be a faster transition,” he added.
Specialists say the development of LNG took decades before it was fully rolled out, partly due to the infrastructure and ships required and the few companies willing to invest initially.
Companies active in wider shipping markets are also looking at the possibility of diversifying into transporting hydrogen in the future.
Paul Wogan, chief executive of GasLog Partners, which is a major player in LNG shipping, said it was “open-minded” about moving into hydrogen, while oil tanker owner Euronav said it was examining future energy transportation.
“If that energy is hydrogen tomorrow, we would certainly like to play a role in the emerging industry,” Euronav’s CEO Hugo De Stoop said.
Others such as leading ship-management company Maersk Tankers said they would be open to managing hydrogen shipping assets.
Johan Petter Tutturen, business director for gas carriers with ship certifier DNV Maritime, said his company was involved in concept studies for the transport of hydrogen in bulk at sea.
“It’ll be some years before these projects come to fruition, but if hydrogen is to be a part of the future fuel mix then we have to begin exploring all possibilities now.”
Tiny single-piston hydrogen engine reverts the power back to the old-fashioned combustion engines.
Aquarius, the company behind the build based in Israel unveiled the tiny hydrogen engine and hopes that it can replace gas engine generators and hydrogen fuel cells in the future models of electric vehicles.
The engine weighs only 10 kg and a single moving piston aids it in developing power. The purpose behind the small build is to power an off-grid micro-generator.
Aquarius in its previous single-piston range used more conventional fossil fuels to create combustion. That is now swapped with emissions-slashing hydrogen. Austrian Engineering Firm AVL-Schrick testified that the small engine runs on hydrogen.
“It was always our dream at Aquarius Engines to breathe oxygen into hydrogen technology as the fuel of the future. From initial tests, it appears that our hydrogen engine, that doesn’t require costly hydrogen fuel-cells, could be the affordable, green and sustainable answer to the challenges faced by global transport and remote energy production.”
Despite being lightweight and small, the Aquarius engine design is straightforward and low maintenance. All-in-all it contains a total of 20 parts out of which the only moveable one is the piston. Amazingly, the small engine comes excluding the biggest of the concern relating to the engine and its performance, the engine oil, as per the company behind its build it does not requires any lubrication to perform.
The fossil fuel engines developed by Aquarius are undergoing initial testing in the field in North America, Europe, and Asia. In collaboration with Nokia, the company has completed its phase-one testing. Nokia foresees installing these micro-generators at communication towers in far-off places. A software also built by Aquarius would aid in monitoring the output and efficiency of the generators from the control rooms back in more developed areas.
Phase two testing would include Nokia testing these small generators at pilot sites in Australia, New Zealand, Germany, and Singapore.
The video below shows how its parts come together to form the whole of the mini engine.
Russia and Germany will jointly implement projects in hydrogen energy. The corresponding agreement was reached by the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak with the Minister of Economy and Energy of the Federal Republic of Germany Peter Altmeier
The meeting was also attended by the Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov, the rector of the St. Petersburg Mining University Vladimir Litvinenko and the ex-Minister of the Federal Republic of Germany Klaus Toepfer, according to the website of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation.
“We agreed that it is important to make joint projects in hydrogen energy. The Prime Minister of the Federal State of Saxony (FRG) Michael Kretschmer recently visited. He proposed joint projects in the field of hydrogen, ” Novak said at the meeting.
“I will give instructions to the Ministry of Energy of Russia so that we jointly propose one or two projects from which we would start,” added the Deputy Prime Minister, whose words are quoted in the release of the Cabinet. According to the Deputy Prime Minister, it is necessary to continue working on joint energy projects.
A German company is already working with Gazprom on this issue.
Meanwhile, Wintershall Dea and Gazprom are discussing the possibility of transporting hydrogen through the existing gas transmission system. The head of the German company, Mario Mehren, told about this in an interview with the corporate magazine of the Russian holding.
“As part of the Science and Technology Cooperation Program between Gazprom and Wintershall Dea, specialists from our companies and joint ventures are discussing current innovative projects in order to find ideas and jointly develop solutions,” Meren explained.
“This initiative has been around for almost 30 years. And it is one of the largest and most intensive exchange formats of this kind, ”said the head of Wintershall Dea. He stressed that during the pandemic, this work continued in an online format.
“For example, in recent months, there has been intense discussion of the possibility of adapting the existing pipeline infrastructure for the transportation of hydrogen. And the use of decarbonized solutions in our joint gas transportation business. Hopefully, soon we will be able to report on new projects in this area, ” Meren added .
In addition, Wintershall Dea and Gazprom are planning a campaign to measure methane emissions. The goal is to reduce the intensity of these emissions during gas production. The partners also plan to jointly develop measures to improve the energy efficiency of compressor stations.
“I am convinced that international partnership will continue to play an important role in the future. And thanks to joint efforts to decarbonize the energy sector, we will be able to further strengthen and expand the successful Russian-German cooperation, ”Meren concluded.
Hydrogen-mixed economy might be coming much sooner than expected. There are many factors contributing to that outcome – at least at the middle term of transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
Tehran, 1943: Joseph Stalin, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill. Hosted by the young Shah Reza Pahlavi. Agree on plans for the two-front attack on Hitler while sketching out the east-west division of Europe.
Holding the meeting in Iran, with separate consultations with the shah, was no mistake. Gulf oil was a critical resource to the Allied war effort. Oil has flowed under the surface of political conflicts ever since.
Fast-forward to today, and political antagonists and energy players are again forging a messy path forward. This time focused on long-term energy transitions as disparate countries try to slow and eventually stop climate change.
The 2015 Paris Agreement was a groundbreaking diplomatic effort. 196 countries committed to prevent average temperatures from rising by more than 2 C (3.6 F), with an aim of less than 1.5 C (2.7 F). To meet that goal, scientists argue that fossil fuel use will have to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.
As the world’s population and economies grow, energy demand is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next 30 years. Making the right long-term investments is crucial.
Different visions of the future
Energy companies and policymakers have widely different visions of that future. Their long-term scenarios show that most expect fossil fuel demand to remain steady for decades and possibly decline. However, many are also increasing their investments in cleaner technologies.
The International Energy Agency has a history of underestimating demand and clean energy. Forecasts that renewable energy will meet about one-third of the global energy demand by 2040 in its most optimistic scenario.
That would be in a world with higher carbon taxes and more wind power, solar power, electric vehicles, carbon capture and storage. Greener technologies may come close to keeping warming under 2 C, but not quite.
Exxon, on the other hand, forecasts a path dependent on a fossil fuel-based economy, with slower transitions to electric vehicles, steady demand for oil and gas, and a warmer world.
Exxon is also investing in carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. However, it believes oil and gas will provide half the global energy supply in 2040 and renewable energy will be less than one-fifth.
OPEC, whose members are among the most exposed to climate change and dependent upon oil and gas, also sees oil and gas dominating in the future. Nonetheless, several Gulf nations are also investing heavily in alternative technologies. – including nuclear, solar, wind and hydrogen.
BP proposes a more focused shift toward cleaner energy. Its “rapid scenario” forecasts flat energy demand and a more dramatic swing to renewables combined with a growing hydrogen economy. The company expects its own renewable energy to go from 2.5 gigawatts in 2019 to 50 GW by 2030. And it expect its oil production to fall by 40%.
Exploring hydrogen’s potential
Others are also exploring hydrogen’s potential. Much as with utilities’ shift from coal to natural gas, hydrogen may ease the transition to cleaner energy with enough investment.
Since this fuel is getting so much industry attention, let’s look more closely at its potential.
Hydrogen has the potential to fuel cars, buses and airplanes. It can heat buildings and serve as a base energy source to balance wind and solar power in our grids. Germany sees it as a potential substitute for hard-coal coke in making steel.
It also offers energy companies a future market using processes they know. It can be liquefied, stored, and transported through existing pipelines and LNG ships, with some modifications.
So far, however, hydrogen is not widely used as a clean-energy solution. First, it requires an upfront investment – including carbon capture capacity. It requires pipeline modifications, industrial boilers for heat rather than gas, and fuel cells for transportation. Plus policies that support the transition.
Second, for hydrogen to be “green,” the electricity grid has to have zero emissions.
Most of today’s hydrogen is made from natural gas and is known as “grey hydrogen.” It is produced using high-temperature steam to split hydrogen from carbon atoms into methane. Unless the separated carbon dioxide is stored or used, grey hydrogen results in the same amount of climate-warming CO2 as natural gas.
Gray, Blue and Green Hydrogen
“Blue hydrogen” uses the same process but captures the carbon dioxide and stores it so only around 10% of the CO2 is released into the atmosphere. “Green hydrogen” is produced using renewable electricity and electrolysis. It is twice as expensive as blue and dependent on the cost of electricity and available water.
Many electric utilities and energy companies, including Shell, BP and Saudi Aramco, are actively exploring a transition to a hydrogen-mixed economy, with a focus on blue hydrogen as an interim step.
Europe, with its dependence on imported natural gas and higher electricity costs, is setting ambitious net-zero energy targets. That will incorporate a mix of blue and green hydrogen coupled with wind, solar, nuclear and an integrated energy grid.
China, the world’s largest energy user and greenhouse gas emitter, is instead investing heavily in natural gas. Natural gas has about half the carbon dioxide emissions of coal – along with carbon capture and storage and a growing mix of solar and wind power.
Russia, the second-largest natural gas producer after the US, is expanding its gas production and exports to Asia. Some of that gas may end up as blue hydrogen.
Ramping up blue and green hydrogen as clean-energy solutions will require substantial investments and long-term modifications to energy infrastructure. In my view, it is not the magic bullet, but it may be an important step.
This story originally appeared on The Conversation website. To see the original, please clickhere.
Analysts say fuel cell electric vehicles are the leading alternatives to internal combustion engine automobiles
By ALAN KIRK
On March 22, a trio of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) companies – Nio, Xpeng, Li Auto, all New York listed – announced that they were hiring investment advisers to assist them with secondary listings in Hong Kong.
Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley have been appointed as Nio is looking to sell a 5% stake, valued at approximately $3.5 billion. Somewhat lower but still comparable valuations for the other two would bring a total of $7.5 billion to Hong Kong.
CNBC stock market guru Jim Cramer, usually unflappable, did a double take on air, also on March 22, commenting on Ark Investment fund manager Cathie Wood’s call of $3,000 per share for Tesla,
“I don’t think there is a fund manager in this country that could get away with this kind of thing other than Cathie Wood.
“But Cathie Wood actually is so good that you start thinking, ok, what is Elon Musk going to do? Maybe he’s got a lot on his mind that she has thought about and …”
And so it went for several more minutes.
The electric vehicle space is jumping and, of course, Musk almost certainly has a lot in mind that will make it even more attractive to investors.
What he’s most likely not thinking about is the large-scale application of hydrogen for EVs. He once called fuel cells “fool cells.”
But while hydrogen fuel cells are just beginning to provide serious competition to battery powered vehicles in personal transportation, they are making a large impact in the heavier vehicle commercial transportation space where large loads have to be carried over long distances.
That’s where hydrogen has the advantage.
And that’s where China, just getting to be competitive with the likes of Tesla in snazzy passenger cars, is poised to seize the lead with hydrogen-powered trucks.
The hydrogen fuel cell is a rare example of a long-established technology turning into a game-changing disrupter. It has powered spacecraft and submarines for decades. However, it made little headway in ground transportation because governments balked at the cost of building fueling infrastructure. And also because the cost of producing the raw materials was prohibitive.
That’s changing in a big way! Mainly because China has made hydrogen-powered ground transport one of the top priorities of its $560 billion a year technology investment budget.
Europe and Japan – Germany has declared 2021 the year of hydrogen technology – are running only slightly behind China. For the next decade or so, battery-powered passenger vehicles will dominate the market for low-carbon substitutes for the internal combustion engine. But batteries can’t power long-range freight transportation by truck and rail, and China is making a decisive commitment to hydrogen.
China’s commitment to hydrogen has drawn the attention of global investors.
In a March 2021 report entitled “China’s gateway to a hydrogen future,” J.P. Morgan research analysts Han Fu and Stephen Tsui write, “Green hydrogen, a clean form of energy, clearly holds potential to play a critical role in China’s 2060 carbon neutrality ambitions.
“Fuel Cell EVs appear to be emerging as an early use case. This is an opportunity for the China hydrogen ecosystem to develop approaches to overcome technical and economic challenges, necessary for more widespread future applications. Hydrogen plays have been in market focus, and valuations are lofty.”
“The global automotive fuel cell market size was USD1.07 billion in 2020…This market exhibited a stellar growth of 44% in 2020,” according to a Fortune Business Insights study, and “is projected to grow from USD $1.73 billion in 2021 to UD $34.63 billion in 2028 at a stellar compound adjusted growth rate of 53.5% in the 2021-2028 period.”
The Fortune report adds that fuel cell electric vehicles are “the leading alternatives to the widely used internal combustion engine automobiles.” The lion’s share of the growth, will be in the Asia-Pacific region.
Already largest market
Already the largest market for Plug-in Energy Vehicles (PEV’s) with 3 million on the road. China projects a fleet of 50,000 fuel-cell vehicles (FCV’s) by 2025 and 1 million by 2030, from only 6,000 on the road in 2019.
Beijing listed hydrogen as an energy source in a public law for the first time in its 2020 Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China. It established subsidies for FCV’s through four government departments, with an emphasis on freight and urban mass transit.
China is ready to finance the refueling infrastructure required to make hydrogen-based transport economically viable. And it has a large supply of hydrogen. It is now produced as a waste byproduct by its chemical industry.
According to government directives issued in September 2020, central government subsidies for FCV’s could reach RMB 17 billion. It is depending on how quickly Chinese cities meet their targets for FCV deployment. Local governments are likely to match the central government support. Supporting between 40,000 and 60,000 new vehicles between 2020 and 2023.
China’s commitment to fuel-cell vehicles prompted a scramble by Europe and Japan to put forward their own programs.
Established Chinese automakers as entrepreneurs are launching new ventures to meet the enormous demand for FCV’s projected by the government. SAIC, a state-owned automaker, plans to produce 10,000 FCV’s a year by 2025. More ambitious is the alliance between startup Ares Motors and two established Chinese vehicle manufacturers, Fujian-based Wisdom Motors and Chery Holdings of Anhui Province.
Ares expects to produce 4,000 PEV’s and FCV’s in 2021 at Wisdom’s Fujian facility. And cross the 10,000- vehicle mark within several years.
Large international automakers are gearing up for the Chinese market. Both as OEM’s and as components manufacturers. Toyota set up a joint venture with FAW group in 2019 which will begin to deliver fuel-cell systems for trucks and buses in China in 2022.
The supply chain for FCV components, moreover, is in an early stage of development. The September government directives focused on building infrastructure (mainly refueling stations) as well as developing a robust supply chain.
This includes more efficient capture of waste hydrogen from China’s chemical industry. Also additional hydrogen production facilities, and manufacturing of fuel stacks (the hydrogen storage module for vehicles) as well as engines.
J.P. Morgan analysts explained in their March 2021 report, “With the carbon-neutrality target now in place, we are optimistic that hydrogen can replicate the success of wind/solar power. The H2 addressable market could grow >30x by 2050, to Rmb12tn, and we estimate green hydrogen’s being commercially competitive by 2030.
This expectation is backed by multiple catalysts to spawn H2 development in China, including top-down policy support, technological improvements and economies of scale.”
Hydrogen, to be sure, remains controversial.
In Europe, Volkswagen-owned Scania, one of Europe’s largest truck producers, declared last year that fuel-cell trucks will be too inefficient and costly to compete with the battery-powered alternative. Scania is betting that improvements in battery technology will allow battery-powered trucks to carry a standard 40-ton load for 4.5 hours — far more than today’s batteries can manage.
To travel several hundred miles today, an eighteen-wheeler would have to carry nothing but batteries to power the engine.
Volvo and Daimler have joined forces with Shell to make hydrogen the future commercial standard for trucking in Europe.
Dubbed “H2Accelerate,” the Shell-led program envisions a public-private partnership to create economies of scale for freight FCV’s. With a network of hydrogen fueling stations built out across Europe by the second half of the 2020s. A trade association, Hydrogen Europe, predicted that Europe would have 10,000 hydrogen trucks in operation by 2025 and 100,000 by 2030.
The United States is far behind Asia and Europe.
A former top General Motors engineer, Ian Hanna, believes in pursuing hydrogen and battery technology in tandem. A former head of GM’s systems safety operations in China, Hanna now heads Ares Motors, an ambitious OEM startup.
What distinguishes Ares is a combination of intellectual property for vehicle fuel cells and partnerships with major Chinese manufacturers that allow it to scale up vehicle production very quickly.
“We’ve got prototypes running on the road with demonstration vehicles that are to be ready by the end of the year. We are actually going after significant volume for this year in the thousands of vehicles,” Hanna told Asia Times.
“And it’s with our dual approach. We’re not only a hydrogen fuel cell company. We’re also a battery electric vehicle [BEV} company. That dual propulsion strategy allows us to meet customer needs this year.
“The 2021 volumes will primarily be through the BEV’s. The infrastructure is well established and the technologies of course are mature, so the customer’s comfortable with it. And then long-term we’ll be able to offer our customers both the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and our BEV vehicles. Only depending upon whatever is the best fit for their use.”
Choice of electric battery power or hydrogen fuel cells
Ares’ flagship product is a heavy truck with a choice of electric battery power or hydrogen fuel cells. The hydrogen model offers a 1,000-kilometer cruising range with a standard 43-ton load. Compared with 400 kilometers for the battery-electric vehicle version.
“For a lot of the longer-range customers,” Hanna added, “the BEV truck may not make sense. So we’ll be able to offer them both of those solutions. I think our timing will be right. We will have the customer relationships, as well as the technology to differentiate our company.
“We have our own proprietary fuel cell engines and other technology that we can build and integrate into our trucks. By contrast, competitors are doing that through non-binding partnerships. We’ve developed a lot of that technology, and our partners are part of the Ares family. A lot of our technology comes from established OEMs.
“There’s no reason for Ares to go and reinvent an electronic power system. We have great partners that already know how to do that really well right now. We will be able to hit the ground with significant volume in a very short time.”
A key partnership is with Sunrise Power, China’s premier manufacturer of fuel cells, with whom Ares has a joint-venture laboratory. Ares is working with Sunrise and other partners to build hydrogen refueling stations in Europe and North America as well as China.
According to a company release, “The new Ares energy stations will ensure the infrastructure is in place to support both our BEV and FCEV vehicles. The energy station will include facilities for charging BEV vehicles, Hydrogen fueling pumps, traditional gas and diesel pumps, and battery swap capability.”
Strong government support and a robust supply chain
The combination of strong government support and a robust supply chain for FCV technology as well as hydrogen fuel makes it possible for a startup like Ares to scale up production rapidly.
“Asia Pacific is projected to hold a major market share due to the encouraging FCEV deployment targets of governments. Coupled with increasing investments in hydrogen fueling infrastructure. Additionally, high fuel stacks manufacturing capacities in the region, owing to the presence of large-scale FC passenger car manufacturers, will also add to the regional landscape.
Ares Motor, a Canadian company with principal operations in China, is seeking a Nasdaq listing in the course of the first half of this year. It also builds city and highway buses, as well as logistic vehicles and autonomous tractors for use in port and dock areas.
Perhaps Ares’ most important advantage is to be located in China. Cost efficiency is the key to the future of hydrogen-powered transport. And the cost of hydrogen itself is the most important variable.
China now produces a third of the world’s hydrogen
China now produces a third of the world’s hydrogen. 20 million metric tons a year. Enough to cover a tenth of the country’s total energy needs. At an estimated fuel consumption of 7.5 kilograms of hydrogen for every 100 miles of road haulage, according to Fuelcelslworks.com, China’s present output potentially could power a truck fleet over 267 billion miles a year of transport. More than enough to meet the country’s present annual 6 billion ton-miles of road transportation.
The cost of hydrogen production is falling. From $6 per kilogram in 2015 to $2 per kilogram in 2025.
China led the world in deployment of cost-efficient solar energy. Many analysts expect China to do the same with hydrogen. A study by Chinese scientists argues that a $2/kg hydrogen price can be achieved quickly through electrolysis of water. It produces the purest hydrogen with the lowest overall environmental impact.
Freight and bus transportation with FCVs becomes economically viable at a hydrogen price of $3/kg. Passenger car FCVs become viable at $2/kg.
Apart from China’s comparatively low production costs for hydrogen, a shift to this fuel source contributes to China’s energy security. As of the first half of 2020 China imported 73% of its oil consumption. Substituting home-produced hydrogen for imported oil is a national security measure as well as an economic and environmental consideration.